Reading the Future of Democracy in Egypt

By: Muh. Ihsan Harahap -- Department of History, Faculty of Letters, Hasanuddin University

Perhaps still vivid in our memory is the heartbreaking tragedy that occurred at Rabiah Adawiah Square, Egypt, in mid-August 2013. It was a sudden military assault on hundreds of thousands of pro-democracy and pro-Morsi demonstrators protesting there. According to the Egyptian Ministry of Health, more than 600 people were killed and 3,700 were injured. This incident took place one month after the military coup against President Mohamed Morsi, the first democratically elected president in Egypt's history.

Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Minister of Defense in Morsi's cabinet, was the man who led the military coup against President Mohamed Morsi's government. The military coup drew condemnation from various parties, both domestically and internationally. Through al-Sisi's lobbying, the military coup received the blessing of the Grand Sheikh of Al-Azhar, Ahmad al-Tayyeb, as well as the supreme leader of Egypt's Coptic Christians, Tawadros II. Afterward, a new government was formed with the former Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court, Adly Mansour, as President, while al-Sisi himself served as Minister of Defense.

Adly Mansour's policies were no less controversial. Under his control, Egypt announced a law banning mass protests against the government, which was enacted in November 2013. As a result, several leaders of the Tamarrod movement (the movement that initiated mass protests at Tahrir Square against President Mohamed Morsi) who had also voiced protests after witnessing irregularities in the coup government, such as Ahmed Maher, Ahmad Duma, and Muhammad Abdel, were thrown behind bars with sentences of three years in prison and fines of 50,000 Egyptian pounds each.

This increasingly uncertain situation led al-Baradei to resign from his position as Vice President of Egypt in August 2013, due to his disappointment with the military's repressive actions against demonstrators at Rabiah Adawiyah Square. Not only that, Hazem al-Beblawi, who led the Egyptian government after the coup against President Morsi, also resigned from his position as Prime Minister in February 2014. This resignation occurred amid a situation in Egypt filled with labor protests, where workers staged massive strikes demanding wage increases and the enactment of a minimum wage law.

However, Hazem al-Beblawi's resignation was seen by many as an initial step and strategy for al-Sisi to facilitate his candidacy for Egypt's presidential election, scheduled for May 26-27, 2014. The suspicion proved true: al-Sisi resigned as Minister of Defense in March 2014 and announced his candidacy for the Egyptian presidency.

Egypt's Presidential Election: A New Path or a Dark Tunnel?

The Egyptian presidential election concluded yesterday (Wednesday, May 28, 2014). This schedule was actually unplanned, as the government had previously set the election to take place over two days, May 26-27, 2014. The reason Ibrahim Mahlab, the Prime Minister who replaced Hazem al-Beblawi, added an extra voting day was due to the low public participation in the election. By the second day of voting, only 37% of Egyptians had participated. One reason cited by the Election Commission was the hot weather in Egypt on Tuesday. However, the most logical reason was that the Muslim Brotherhood, which has millions of supporters across Egypt, declared a boycott of the presidential election. In the Zamalek district, an area inhabited by elite sympathizers of the Muslim Brotherhood, not a single voter was seen coming to the polling stations.

Beyond adding a third day of voting, the Egyptian government also threatened to fine eligible voters who did not exercise their right to vote. The fine was set at 500 Egyptian pounds. Meanwhile, those who did participate could use train services for free by showing the ink mark proving they had voted. The government also declared Tuesday, May 27, 2014, a public holiday. All of this was done solely to increase voter participation. There were concerns that low election turnout would give rise to the argument that the election winner did not have a full mandate from the Egyptian people. The low public participation in this election became a joke among pro-Morsi youth, who called it "intikhabat darul musinnin" -- an election for the elderly.

The presidential election featured two candidates: al-Sisi and Hamdeen Sabbahi. Sabbahi is a prominent leftist figure in Egypt and also a presidential candidate in the previous election. In the 2012 Egyptian presidential election, Sabbahi placed third behind Mohamed Morsi and Ahmad Shafik in vote count. However, in the 2014 election, based on various survey results, al-Sisi was expected to win the election easily.

Al-Sisi, who led the coup and was also the mastermind behind the massacre of pro-Morsi and pro-democracy groups in mid-August 2013, consistently won surveys in Egyptian media by landslide margins. Therefore, the Socialist Popular Alliance Party accused al-Sisi of using government-affiliated Egyptian media to promote himself as the candidate who would win the 2014 Egyptian presidential election.

On Tuesday evening, May 27, 2014, thousands of al-Sisi's supporters marched through the streets of Cairo to celebrate al-Sisi's victory. This was especially visible at Tahrir Square, a historic place for Egypt. They claimed the election results would show an overwhelming victory for al-Sisi. Subsequently, on May 28, 2014, according to a Reuters report, al-Sisi won overwhelmingly with 92.2% of votes from 50% of counted polling stations, while Sabbahi received only 3.2%, and 4.6% of votes were declared invalid.

Now Egypt will enter a new chapter, with al-Sisi most likely becoming President. We do not know whether this is a bright new path for Egypt, or whether it is a dark tunnel -- darker than Egypt under the rule of Hosni Mubarak. An even more important question: does democracy have a future in Egypt?

We can only wait and see.

Makassar, May 29, 2014

Published in the Tribun Timur daily newspaper, May 30, 2014 edition